Stratus Financial 2026 Economic Outlook
As I close out 2025 and shift my perspective toward the year ahead, I’ve spent a meaningful amount of time reflecting on what this year has taught us about: markets, human behavior, the state of the economy, and the evolving expectations of investors. This is not intended to be a technical summary or a series of charts and forecasts. Instead, it is my honest point of view as someone who spends every day in real, candid conversations with investors, hearing their concerns, their hopes, their frustrations, and their priorities straight from them. The vantage point of being at the forefront of these conversations gives people like me a unique opportunity to listen, absorb, and experience an unfiltered understanding of how investors are truly navigating today’s environment. It is from that perspective that I share these reflections.
Whether you are an existing investor or reading about Stratus for the first time, my intention is to give you the clearest expression of where we stand today, the long-term opportunities we see, and why our discipline as a firm has never mattered more.
The Year That Challenged Assumptions
If 2024 was the year of anticipation, 2025 became the year of contradictions. Markets climbed, but confidence never fully settled. Inflation cooled, but not cleanly; it eased enough to calm nerves, but remained stubborn enough to keep policymakers cautious. Rates stayed higher for longer than many expected, and throughout the year the Federal Reserve showed a level of restraint that signaled a new era of monetary thinking.
Private credit, long viewed as a steady, reliable engine for predictable yield, moved into the spotlight this year in a way we haven’t seen before. Capital began flowing faster, new players entered the space, and the broader market finally started to recognize what many industry practitioners have understood for years: private credit is no longer a niche corner of finance, it has become a central pillar of the modern investment landscape.
But pillars come with weight. And this year, scrutiny grew just as quickly as demand. Liquidity questions surfaced. Listed private-credit vehicles traded at discounts to NAV. Borrowers regained financing options, compressing yields in parts of the market. Regulators began openly questioning valuation methods that looked increasingly disconnected from market realities.
At Stratus, our growth this year was intentional, measured, and built on the same disciplined approach that has guided us since day one. Each year, we refine our processes, strengthen our underwriting, and expand our expertise so we can evolve alongside the market rather than chase it. We stay focused on the areas where we know we can execute consistently, and we avoid stretching into strategies that don’t align with our experience or risk profile. Investors today want returns, but they also want structure and transparency around how those returns are generated. As the macro environment continues to shift, we remain committed to improving our model and adapting with the trends, not reacting to them.
The Federal Reserve’s New Era: Slower Cuts, Higher Floors
One of the biggest forces shaping both 2025 and the years ahead is the Federal Reserve’s evolving view of what “normal” policy looks like. After two years of aggressive tightening, the Fed has clearly shifted into a new phase, one defined not by urgency, but by caution and patience. Both Reuters and the Financial Times highlighted the same core message in their late-2025 reporting: the Fed is done raising rates, but it is in no hurry to bring them down. Markets hoping for rapid cuts are realizing that the central bank intends to move slowly, even if inflation continues drifting toward target.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the first meaningful rate cut to come near the end of 2025, and even then, it would serve more as the starting signal for a gradual easing cycle rather than a dramatic shift in policy. Most forecasts now point to a slow progression of rate cuts throughout 2026, ultimately stabilizing at a new “normal” range of 3.00% to 3.50%, a noticeably higher floor than what we saw in the pre-pandemic decade.
The Financial Times added important context: the Fed’s caution is intentional. Despite elevated rates, the U.S. economy has remained surprisingly resilient. Growth is steady, unemployment is near historical lows, and asset prices, from equities to real estate to credit, are already reflecting a fair amount of optimism. Cutting too fast could reignite the same overheating pressures the Fed has spent years trying to control. In other words, the central bank is trying to avoid a repeat of previous cycles where rapid cuts accidentally fueled new bubbles.
Inflation is also moderating, but not in a perfectly clean or linear way. According to the Reuters economist survey, inflation is expected to end 2026 at around 2.6%, just above the Fed’s 2% goal. That small gap reflects deeper structural trends that are likely to persist: higher labor costs, stronger demand for services, and global supply chains that are still recalibrating. These forces make it harder for inflation to fall quickly, reinforcing the Fed’s slow-and-steady stance.
Taken together, this marks the beginning of a new interest-rate era, one where we may not return to the ultra-low rates of the 2010s, and where higher floors and slower adjustments become the norm rather than the exception.
The 2026 Economic Outlook: A Narrow but Manageable Path
Across major banks, economists, and institutional surveys, the consensus for 2026 has become clearer: Growth will be moderate but not collapse; inflation will ease but not disappear; employment will soften but remain healthy. The U.S. economy is charting a narrow but navigable path through a late-cycle environment.
GDP is expected to remain steady at around 2%. Unemployment may move slightly higher to 4.4% to 4.6%, which is still relatively low compared with longer-term history. Inflation is projected to settle in the mid-2% range, and interest rates are likely to level off just above 3%, consistent with the Fed’s more disciplined, longer-term policy approach. At the same time, ongoing investment in AI, automation, and supply-chain improvements should help support growth and offset some of the pressure coming from global tensions, keeping overall business sentiment cautiously optimistic.
In an environment like this, private credit can perform well, but not across the board. The era of easy yield and quick deployment is over. The next phase of growth will reward managers who take a disciplined approach, understand their borrowers deeply, and stay closely connected to the real economy behind every loan.
Private Credit’s Dual Reality: Strong Growth, Increasing Scrutiny
Private credit’s growth over the last decade has been remarkable. What started as a small corner of the alternative investment world is now a core part of many institutional portfolios. But 2025 also brought an uncomfortable truth to the surface: private credit is facing a confidence gap. Reuters highlighted this clearly in a mid-year report, investors are asking for more transparency, more consistent reporting, and more reliable valuation practices. That demand is expected to intensify going into 2026.
The Financial Times pointed to another turning point: the Bank of England conducted its first-ever system-wide stress test on private credit. Regulators in both the U.S. and Europe are paying closer attention to issues like opacity, layered leverage, and interconnected risks that traditional models often overlook.
This increased scrutiny is not a criticism of the asset class itself. It simply reflects that private credit has grown up, and with that growth comes higher expectations. For firms built on clear structures, disciplined underwriting, and real economic cash flows, this environment is not a threat but an advantage.
The Stratus Model: Focused, Transparent, and Built on the Real Economy
While private credit has expanded into a wide range of strategies, from large corporate financings to real-estate and specialty lending, Stratus has remained focused on one clearly defined area: financing the education of aspiring commercial pilots.
We do not lend to corporations, buyouts, or large development projects. Instead, we provide loans to individuals entering an in-demand profession supported by long-term global pilot shortages. Our underwriting evaluates training progress, school accreditation, attendance, co-borrower support, and long-term earning potential. Our model is evergreen, amortizing, and driven by monthly borrower payments that support consistent investor distributions.
The Opportunity in 2026: How Stratus Plans to Move Forward
As interest rates stabilize and regulatory scrutiny increases across the private-credit landscape, many managers will adjust their strategies. Our path remains consistent.
In 2026, Stratus will continue strengthening school partnerships, refining its underwriting, and growing its capital base deliberately rather than aggressively. Our focus remains on managing risk, improving our systems, and scaling only where the data supports long-term stability.
Stratus provides exposure to a real-economy credit segment rooted in human capital, individuals training for a profession with durable global demand. Aviation hiring cycles may fluctuate, but pilot training remains essential in every environment. Investors gain monthly cash flow or compounding growth.
Closing Thoughts: Looking Ahead with Confidence
As we move into 2026, the broader economy is entering a period defined by greater clarity, steadier interest-rate policy, and a more balanced foundation for growth. Inflation is easing, markets are regaining direction, and businesses across sectors are investing again in innovation, talent, and long-term development. While uncertainty will always play a role in the market cycle, the year ahead offers a healthier backdrop than we’ve seen in some time, one where disciplined planning and thoughtful decision-making can create real opportunity. 2026 is not a year to brace for turbulence, but a year to move forward with intention, optimism, and confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy.
About Stratus Financial
Stratus Financial provides tailored lending solutions to aspiring aviators, ensuring that the dream of flight remains within reach for students across the nation. Founded by pilots and financial experts, Stratus combines industry knowledge with flexible financing options to help students achieve their goals. Through strategic partnerships and an unwavering commitment to customer service, Stratus is helping shape the next generation of pilots. Learn more at www.stratus.finance.
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